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# FORECAST

A forecast is a statement, usually in probabilistic
terms, about the future state or properties of a system based on
a known past and present. A CONDITIONAL FORECAST states in
probabilistic terms what the future will be if a course of action
is taken. A forecast that states with a high degree of
confidence what the future will be is referred to as a
prediction. A forecast that is a hypothesis rather than a
formally justified inference from past data is referred to as a
scenario. Forecasting techniques range from expert judgments to
mathematical forecasting models. The FORECASTING LEAD
(forecasting horizon) is the length of time ahead of now for
which one can make a reasonable forecast. It depends, in the
general sense, on available data. A forecast that makes itself
come true is referred to as a self- fulfilling forecast. For
example, a forecast for the rapid growth of a certain city may
encourage business to locate there, thus causing the forecast to
be realized. (IIASA)

URL= http://cleamc11.vub.ac.be/ASC/FORECAST.html